CASE NUMBER: 177
CASE MNEMONIC: SPACEMIN
CASE NAME: The Future of Space Mining
I. IDENTIFICATION
II. LEGAL CLUSTERS
III. GEOGRAPHIC CLUSTERS
IV TRADE CLUSTERS
V ENVIROMENTAL CLUSTERS
VI OTHER FACTORS
Sample Extraction from an Asteroid
I.
IdentificationThe mineral exploitation of outer space is decades away yet since the mid 1970's, this activity has been the subject of countless feasibility studies. For some, the activity brings to mind visions of tapping extra-terrestrial treasure troves, for others merely the chance to supply the raw materials needed by the fledgling space industrial complexes which many see as an inevitable result of current economic trends. This case explores the present state of space usage, technical issues which surround space mining, the economic necessity of the activity if space is to be utilized and the most likely economic and environmental effects of this activity. While this activity if it takes place will to a large extent be global, the interests of the United States are addressed and given preeminence over those of foreign competitors.
2. Description
The Moon landing of Apollo 12 in 1969 fired the imagination of the nation. Whereas spaceflight had been the province of science fiction writers, fantasy had now become reality. During the 1970's mainstream scientists were predicting the establishment of a permanent Lunar base by the year 2000 and Martian colonies soon to follow. However these predications were not realized for several reasons. First of all fiscal constraints caused by the Oil price hicks of the latter 70's and deficit spending to finance the increased military buildup in the 80's, limited the amount of resources which could be devoted to space exploration and economic exploitation. Secondly there was no sense of urgency, resources are seen as abundant. However recent environmental depredation, especially dealing with the oceanic environment has led many to believe it would bet better environmental policy to remove harmful extraction and manufacturing processes out of the ecosystem (See COBALTcase). While colonization has not occurred, space has still become an invaluable economic resource.
The satellite communications industry generates $3 billion annually from the transmission and reception of electronic signals from E-mail to television broadcasts. In addition satellites have become an invaluable resource in many diverse areas. Landsat satellites launched in the 1970's have photographed remote areas which has enabled accurate mapping of areas largely inaccessible to ground observation. Other satellites are used to track the sources of pollution which causes acid rain, track hurricane paths and to study the affect insects have on cropland. The estimated total space bossiness which includes rocket and satellite production, in addition to satellite launching is around $100 billion yearly. "Peter Glaser, a vice president for space operations at Arthur D. Little, A Cambridge Mass., consulting firm, has studied applications for years. He has, he says, come to a new conclusion; We're not going there for the glory anymore, We're going there for the money." (Bernstein 82) As a result of the tremendous growth in space communications, great interests in future expanded economic utilization of space exists.
In 1986, a multimillion dollar grant was awarded to the University of Wisconsin-Madisson's Engineering department to study commercial applications of space. The grant was for research in food production, the use of robots, and to study the feasibility of mining Helium 3 on the Moon. Helium 3 is a gas which is not present on Earth but is known to be plentiful in space. This gas is seen as a critical component in the development of the emerging technology of nuclear fusion. "Faculty at Wisconsin Madison have developed a concept to use Helium 3 in a radiation free Fusion reactor. In order for that concept to be implemented it would first be necessary to procure the gas in sufficient quantities to experiment on. While there is disagreement over the advisability and timing over space exploitation, most agree that we have only scratched the surface of the economic potential of this "final frontier."
The manufacture of materials in space such as crystals, alloys, and pharmaceutical are as potentially lucrative, if not more so, then the current computer revolution and the emerging field of genetic engineering. Why then hasn't the pace of space utilization increased. As with most new untried ventures the tremendous cost of getting started has prevented a quickened pace. In May 1989, a conference on the costs of transporting materials into space and the feasibility of mining in space was held in Colorado. Egons Podnieks, a senior staff scientist for the bureau of mines described differing costs inherent in material transportation form earth and the moon. "Consider that only 1.5% of the total mass of the space shuttle is actual payload when traveling up to low earth orbit (LEO). A launch from the moon would contain up to 50% if desired. The cost for attaining LEO varies with the delivery system, with a minimum cost of about $2,000/lb. A corresponding launch from the moon would require only 5% to 15% in terms of energy." Podnieks, who is familiar with the mining industry, believes that it makes sense to plan to mine the moon and other spatial bodies by building on current technology and forming simple and practical plans as opposed to futuristic exotic scenarios. One example is that the best location for a space mine is primarily underground as opposed to open pits. Podnieks states that it makes sense to have the miners work ia am environment which can be pressurized and necessitate little use of bulking spacesuits except when leaving the mining area. (Zaburanov 46k)
Who will benefit from the exploitation of space? Information on this area has made plain that the costs of initial start-up and initial maintenance are beyond the capability of the non industrialized nations and can only be undertaken by nations with large developed economic infrastructures, specifically the European Union, The U.S., possibly Russia and Japan. Each of these has positive and negative factors which will determine how large a share of space industry and mining they will control. The U.S. has several advantages. First of all the previously mentioned public and private commitment to space research. Secondly a great deal of governmental research has gone into space "Space ventures require investments beyond the capacity of the private sector. Already the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has spent more then $200 billion (in current dollars), much of it to create the infrastructure needed to exploit space." (Osborne 45) Like any momentous undertaking a planning stage is required, thanks to some far-sighted policy makers a fair amount of planning has already been accomplished.
During The presidencies of Ronald Reagan and George Bush, space was seen as a possible solution to pressing international and domestic problems. Reagan is famous for his commitment to SDI, an antimissile system of laser tipped satellites. Although never implemented, billions of dollars were poured into research. Once the threat of the Cold War ended it seemed like a good policy to push space utilization. President Bush on the other hand was interested in offsetting the recession caused by demobilization of most of America's military infrastructure, channeling more resources in the direction mapped out by his predecessor seemed prudent. However the U.S. has some negative factors. First of all American's are very finicky and without a common threat like the former Soviet Union, they are unlikely to support a long costly program showing little or no return in the short term. Another negative factor is the deficit which we have not yet been able to eradicate. Unlike the 1950's when we had large amounts of discretionary income, todays lean budgets preclude any massive investments in space.
On the other hand several factors benefit foreign competitors. "Foreign companies, particular in France, Germany, and Japan have expressed a willingness to invest now for profits that they may not see for fifteen or twenty years, a luxury that very few American companies can afford." Also as has been mentioned in numerous other business reports foreign companies have benefited from their acquisition of U.S. R&D. The foreign space program,s have the advantage of concentrating their resources into areas which U.S. research has shown to be promising avenues for commercialization. Since these companies have not had to bear the costs of initial research they are in a much better position financially. (Osborne 45) The Russian space program also has a key advantage over ours. In the area of materials processing, experimenting to see which materials can be engineered profitably in space the Russian's have conducted 1500 experiments as opposed to approximately 100 conducted by NASA. Japan has also has made some concrete plans to use space for economic gain. "According to Yasunori Matogawa of Japan's Institute for Space and Astrophysical Science, several Japanese companies are making efforts to participate in the development of a manned lunar base early in the 21st century. Shimizu Corp., the worlds largest construction company, has opened a space projects office, with an eye toward lunar base and other related concepts." Other companies have set up research grants to plan on building space habitats. (Zubaranov 46k)
Despite their commitment to space, many of our potential competitors have their own problems which also slow down their dreams of manufacturing in space. Japan and Germany (the driving engine in the EU) are facing their own fiscal crisisses. Japan is facing the problem of dealing with a greying population and Germany is still dealing with the problems of reunification. I should mention the Third World, as they are the ones who will not benefit if space mining ever becomes a reality. While many of these countries have valuable resources, none of them has the necessary human capital or economic resources to mount a successful space mining venture of their own. In order to compete with space mining they will probably resort to cutting corners environmentally in order to continue to finance their economic development (see PAPUA1 case). What then will this activity be like, unfortunately the only answers are a few hypothetical responses crafted by men like Carl Sagan and Arthur C. Clarke.
Despite this dearth of information a few educated guesses and suppositions can be made. There are concerns that increased launches of space vehicles will cause weather imbalances as a result of upper atmospheric disturbances caused by expelled rocket fuel, There have been several studies done on this issue but so far the results are inconclusive. On the whole the widespread movement of industry and mining would be seen as a boon to the planet environmentally. All hazardous materials produced would be disposed of either by disposing of it by sending it to the sun or by leaving them at the mining site. While it will be necessary to make sure there is no danger of such materials reentering Earth;s atmosphere, on the whole this concern seem minor compared to our present proliferation of hazardous waste dumps.
The first likely mineral sources in space will be near earth asteroids. While most asteroids which number in the millions are located in a belt between Mars and Jupiter, there are some near neighbors which are highly promising mineral sources. The first two were discovered by NASA JPL scientists who are on constant watch for heavenly bodies which might collide with earth. Using telescopic spectroscopy, which analyzes light reflected from objects, the scientists were able to determine the nickel iron makeup of the two asteroids, known as 1985 EB and 1986DA. Both asteroids are about the same distance from the earth as the moon, though they are not in the lunar orbit. (Ricks 77) More recently 1993 BX3, another near earth metallic asteroid was discovered. This asteroid is a few hundred meters across and ways several million tons. It is estimated that two to three thousand such asteroids are in near earth orbit, though all are not metallic, and thus unsuitable for mining except as a source for stone. (Pockler 14)
Why do we need to mine for iron and nickel in outer space? According to most experts we have enough of all major commodities to last at least 300 years. The answer is economic. While the initial construction of space stations dedicated to manufacturing new higher quality goods the costs of maintaining and expanding these initial ventures would be cost prohibitive if materials needed to be sent from Earth. In addition to high tech electronics, water and fuel among other bulk materials will be necessary to sustain the new manufacturing complexes. Water is for most of us a resource we take for granted. However in space it is worth more then it's weight in gold. Besides drinking water can be used to manufacture oxygen, a material which also is bulky in large amounts. John Lewis who works at Arizona State's space research center had this to say about mining."A mine in space would cost millions to operate, but this is far cheaper then the billions it would costs to continuously ferry supplies up to the industrial enterprises. However Lewis does see problems with setting up a lunar mine. While sufficient water is known to exists at the moons poles and deep within craters finding actual mineral deposits could prove tricky. Unlike the earth which concentrates minerals in specific areas by the virtue of volcanic eruptions, the moon is volcanically inactive, so new ways of locating minerals will need to be found. (Gamernman) No statement about the future can be sure to come to pass. However as a recent article dealing with predictions about life 30 years from now that we need to make guesses about the future so that we have some idea of what is likely to happen, and that we can then plan for it. (Coates 51) While much of the preceding has been based on conjecture there is enough empirical evidence to suggest that space exploitation will become a reality within the near future. If the U.S. wishes to attain an integral position in this new area a longer view must be fostered among various private and public organizations. It will be interesting to see if the claims asserted by this study come to pass.
3. Related Cases:
BRAGOLD case
COBALT case
BAUXITE case
BOLGOLD case
ZAMBIA case
TRAIL case
GEDDES case
CHILE case
Keyword Clusters
(1): Trade Product =METAL
(2): Biogeography =SPACE
(3): Environmental Problem =NA There has been some fear of an accident in space in which something dangerous, along the lines of a damaged nuclear reactor would fall back to Earth and cause widespread devastation. Scientists who study orbital mechanics have not come up with an answer either way. There are fears of climatic changes with the increase amount of Earth to space traffic that large scale mining and manufacturing would bring. Again no evidence exists either way.
4. Draft Author:
Michael Booth
5. Discourse and Status:
DISagreement and COMPlete The highly hypothetical nature of the discussion precludes any meaningful predications about what the eventual structure os a space mining system will entail. While it is possible that at some future date the Third World will gain the necessary power to bargain successfully with the developed countries in order to receive an equitable share in future economic activities, presently there seems little chance of that happening.
6. Forum and Scope:
GLOBAL
7. Decision Breadth:
GLOBAL
8. Legal Standing:
NA
III.
Geographic Clustersa. Geographic Domain :SPACE
b. Geographic Site :SPACE
c. Geographic Impact :GLOBAL
10. Sub National Factors:
NO
11. Type of Habitat
SPACE
IV.
Trade ClustersNAPP
13. Direct vs. Indirect Impacts:
INDirect
14. Relation of Measure to Environmental Impact
a. Directly Related :NO
b. Indirectly Related :YES
c. Not Related :NO
d. Process Related :NO
15. Trade Product Identification:
METAL
16. Economic Data
17. Impact of Measure on Trade Competitiveness:
Initially space mines will not be able to compete within the Earth market, as a result of transportation costs. In any case these mines are meant to supply spatial enterprises, and they will have the advantage in transportation costs. Eventually as more industry leaves Earth then domestic sources of minerals will be in an unenviable position. However these events are far off and while it is wise to plan ahead for them, the present would be better spent by working on short term problems which are much easier to grasp and deal with then something that at it's soonest will be thirty years down the road.
18. Industry Sector:
MINING
19. Exporter and Importer:
YES
Since Earth will be the principle supplier of initial capital and equipment to start up any mining enterprise, there will very likely be a strong outward flow when the mining settlements are being established. Once these operations have matured there will then probably be a more equitable exchange system.
V.
Environment ClustersNA
21. Name, Type, and Diversity of Species
Name:NA
Type:NA
Diversity:MA
22. Impact and Effect:
LOW and PRODuct
23. Urgency and Lifetime:
LOW and 20-60 years
24. Substitutes:
LIKE products
VI.
Other FactorsNO
26. Trans-Border:
YES
27. Rights:
NO
28. Relevant Literature
Lay, S. Houston. The Law Relating to Activities of man in Outer Space. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1970.
Christol, Carl Quimby. The Modern International Law of Outer Space. New York: Pergamon Press, 1002.
Margrove, Eugene C. "Beyond Spaceship Earth: Environmental Ethics and The Solar System." Space World. Aug 85, pg. 4.
Hanoe, William H. "Prospecting Ideas." Ad Astra. March/April 1981, Pg. 30.
BarnesSvarney, Patricia. "Staking A Claim." Ad Astra. Nov/Dec, 1992, 0gs. 2526. U.S. Bureau of Mines. Space Mining Research Programs. Washington, D.C.:U.S. Bureau of Mines, 1992.
Atwater, Mary. Exploring Space. New York: Macmillan/McGrawHill, 1992.
Sagan, Carl. Pale Blue Dot: A Vision of the Human Future in Space. New York: Random House, 1994.
References
Zaburanov, Steven A. "MINES IN SPACE; WHAT IS NASA DOING." Engineering And Mining Journal. July 1990; 16K.
Gamorman, Ellen. "Space Mining Venture Finds Roots in Arizona." United States News Service. 4 Sept. 1992. USNS.
Pokley, Peter. "Newfound asteroid a lodestar for miners." The Daily Telegraph. 15 March 1993: pg. 14.
Bernstein, James. "Europe takes control of space launches; U.S. Satellite Companies fear they will fall behind if payloads sit on ground." Newsday. 13 March 1989: 82.
Coates, Joseph F. "The Highly Probable Future; 83 assumptions about the year 2025." The Futurist. July 1994: pg. 51.
Osborne, David. "Business in space; the weightless
environment of space, in which valuable new commodities can be manufactured
more efficiently then on Earth, may be the next economic frontier for American
companies." The Atlantic. May 1985; pg. 45.
Author: Michael Lippincott Booth
School of International Service
E-Mail: Michael Booth at
dbooth@ccpl.carr.lib.md.us