National Security in the Nuclear Age
Wed, Thurs., 2-2:50, 20 Gilman Hall
Fall 2001, Johns Hopkins University

Christopher L. Ball, Lecturer
Office Hours: Thurs., 3-5 & by appt.
358 Mergenthaler Hall

Precis
This course examines the security problems of sovereign states since the invention of nuclear weapons. It focuses on United States nuclear weapons policies during and after the Cold War, but it will also study the national security concerns of other nuclear weapons states (NWS) and of non-NWS since 1945. The course is divide into two roughly equal parts. In the first part, we study the evolution of nuclear strategy and nuclear deterrence theory during the Cold War. In the second part, we examine contemporary issues in nuclear security, including the proliferation of nuclear weapons, national missile defense and prospects for arms control and disarmament.

Requirements:
All students are expected to attend and be prepared to participate in class. In addition to course readings, students should stay abreast of current events in international affairs. The New York Times, The Washington Post and National Public Radio (NPR) news broadcasts on WEAA 88.9 FM or WJHU 88.1 FM are excellent daily news sources. The Economist provides a good weekly analysis of world affairs, although with a pro-market slant. The periodicals Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, and World Policy Journal, among others, publish articles that mix advocacy and analysis on a variety of topics in international affairs. They are useful sources for keeping up with international issues during and after this course. There are numerous on-line news sources. Many are listed at the course website: http://jhcourse.jhu.edu/~as191340

Class Participation:
All students should participate in class discussions. I may call on individual students to answer questions. I reserve the right to distribute unannounced in-class quizzes on the assigned readings. Students are not expected to perform Periclean orations, but everyone should be prepared to discuss the assigned readings, current events, and issues raised in lecture. Criticism of points made in readings and lectures is welcome, and debates may emerge among students. Students are expected to respect their classmates' contributions, and refrain from partisan or parochial phillipics. The purpose of class discussion is not to win imaginary debating points, but to learn beyond solitary reading and unexamined listening.

Written Work:
There will be three take-home written assignments, including the final exam. Detailed instructions will be distributed in advance. The take-home assignments must be typed or machine-printed. The assignments will be essays of 1400-1600 words in length. The specific questions will be issued a week prior to the due date. The assignment due dates are:
" 18 October: First essay due in class
" 15 November: Second essay due in class
" 18 December: Final exam essay due by 10 am at my office

Penalties:
Students must submit take-home assignments on time. No late papers will be accepted. The only exceptions will be for medical excuses or deaths in the family. In both cases, you must provide a means of verifying the claimed excuse (a doctor's note, a funeral director's phone number, or a note from the dean of students).

A computer mishap will not excuse a late paper. You should make frequent and multiple back-ups of your work (to at least 2 separate floppy disks or other removable media), so that you never lose more than one hour's worth of work. Even if you have your own computer, be sure you familiarize yourself with the Johns Hopkins University computer lab system in case your system breaks down.

Grade Components:
Your final grade will be calculated as follows:
" Participation : 10%
" Essays: first essay 15%; second essay 30%; final essay 45%

I do not accept make-up assignments, re-writing of papers, or extra-credit work. The grading is progressive, so if you get a B on the first paper, it is still possible to get an A for the course. And if you do not get an A or A- for the course, it is not a tragedy.

Academic Honesty:
Johns Hopkins University regulations regarding academic honesty will be enforced. If you are recently matriculated, you should consult the university guidelines. I will pursue any violation of these rules with Starr-like intensity! The penalty for plagiarism is failure for the course.

Readings:
There are four books available for purchase for this course at Johns Hopkins University Book Center, located on the lower level of Gilman Hall (410.516.8317):

1. Lawrence Freedman, The Evolution of Nuclear Strategy (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1989) ENS
2. Robert Jervis, The Meaning of the Nuclear Revolution: Statecraft and the Prospect of Armageddon (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1989) MNR
3. Thomas C. Schelling, Arms and Influence (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1966) AI
4. Victor A. Utgoff, ed., The Coming Crisis: Nuclear Proliferation, U.S. Interests, and World Order (Cambridge, MIT Press, 2000) CC

The boldface abbreviations after each book are used for the titles in the syllabus after the first reference.

Another 20 required readings are available on reserves at MSE Library, on-line via MSE full-text services, online via the MSE digital reserves system, or on-line at public off campus sites.

Accessing On-line Readings
When an article is available publicly on-line the URL is next to the article. For example:

Federation of American Scientists, et al, Toward True Security (June 2001), pp.1-27 (28) at http://www.fas.org/ssp/docs/010600-posture.htm

If the article is available via MSE full-text services, the name of the service (usually "Academic Search Elite" or "JSTOR") that has the article is noted in boldface next to the article. For example:

Susan Moller Okin, "Taking the Bishops Seriously?" World Politics 36:4 (July 1984), pp.527-554 (28) JSTOR

The on-line version of the syllabus has hyperlinks to the article or the service that provides it. Some of the articles may be available by multiple services

If you are connecting to the JHU domain via a third party internet service provider (e.g, AOL, Earthlink), you will need to establish a RAUL account. Otherwise, you will be denied access to the articles. Attention: RAUL accounts take 48 hours to activate, so I encourage you to do this as soon as possible.
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6 Sep.
1945 and the Nuclear Revolution: Changing Ideas of Security
Schelling, Arms and Influence, "Chap.1: Diplomacy of Violence" pp.1-34 (35)
Freedman, Evolution of Nuclear Strategy, "Chap.1: Arrival of the Bomb" pp.3-21 (19)

Recommended:
Arnold Wolfers, "'National security' as an Ambiguous Symbol" Political Science Quarterly 67:4 (Dec. 1952), pp. 481-502 (22) JSTOR
John Hersey, Hiroshima (New York: Bantam, 1986)

Nuclear Strategy during the Cold War

12 & 13 Sep.
Theory of Nuclear Strategy
Jervis, Meaning of the Nuclear Revolution, "Chap.1: The Theory of the Nuclear Revolution," pp.1-45 (46)
Jervis, MNR, "Chap.2: Strategic Theory," pp.46-73 (28)
Schelling, AI, "Chap.3: The Manipulation of Risk," pp.92-125 (34)

19 & 20 Sep.
Nuclear Strategy in Practice
Freedman, ENS, "Chap.3: Agression and Defense," pp.34-44 (11)
Freedman, ENS, "Chap.5: Strategy for an Atomic Stalemate," pp.63-75 (13)
Freedman, ENS, "Chap.6: Massive Retaliation," pp.76-90 (15)
Freedman, ENS, "Chap.9: The Importance of Being First," pp.123-138 (16)
Freedman, ENS, "Chap.11: The Technological Arms Race," pp.155-171 (17)
Schelling, AI, "Chap.3: The Art of Commitment," pp.35-91 (57)

26 & 27 Sep.
The Cuban Missile Crisis
Selections from The Kennedy Tapes TBA
Selection from "History and Politics Out Loud" TBA

3 & 4 Oct.
A World Gone MAD?
Freedman, ENS, "Chap.15: City Avoidance," pp. (30)
Freedman, ENS, "Chap.16: Assured Destruction," pp. 245-254 (10)
Jervis, MNR, "Chap.3: MAD is a Fact, Not a Policy," pp.74-106 (33)
Schelling, AI, "Chap.5: The Diplomacy of Ultimate Survival," pp.190-220 (31)

10 & 11 Oct. - First Essay Issued 11 Oct
Crisis Stability, Strategic Stability, and Defense Forgone
Jervis, MNR, "Chap. : Psychological Aspects of Crisis Stability," pp.136-173 (38)
Freedman, ENS, "Sec.8: Restreat from Assured Destruction," pp.333-395 (63)
Schelling, AI, "Chap.6: The Dynamics of Mutual Alarm," pp.221-259 (39)

17 & 18 Oct. - First Essay Due 18 Oct
Endgames: INF & the START Process
Thomas Risse-Kappen, "Did 'Peace Through Strength' End the Cold War? Lessons from INF," International Security 16:1 (Summer, 1991), pp. 162-188 (27) JSTOR
Daniel Deudney, "Nuclear Weapons and the Waning of the Real-State," Daedalus 124:2(Spring 1995), pp.209-231 (23)

The Nuclear Age after the Cold War

24 & 25 Oct.
Nuclear Ethics
Jervis, MNR, "Chap.4: Morality and International Strategy," pp.107-135 (29)
Susan Moller Okin, "Taking the Bishops Seriously?" World Politics 36:4 (July 1984), pp.527-554 (28) JSTOR
Nina Tannenwald, "The Nuclear Taboo: The United States and the Normative Basis of Nuclear Non-Use," International Organization 53:3 (Summer 1999), pp.433-68 (36) Academic Search Elite (ASE)

Recommended:
Joseph S. Nye, Jr., Nuclear Ethics (New York: The Free Press, 1986)

31 Oct.
A New Nuclear Era?
Richard K. Betts, "Universal Deterrence or Conceptual Collapse?" in Utgoff, The Coming Crisis, pp.51-85 (35)

1 Nov.
Theories of Proliferation
Scott Sagan, "Rethinking the Causes of Nuclear Proliferation," in CC, pp.17-50 (34)
Etel Solingen, "The Political Economy of Nuclear Restraint," International Security 19:2 (Spring 1994), pp.126-169 (44) JSTOR
Šumit Ganguly, "India's Pathway to Pokhram II," International Security 23:4 (Spring 1999), pp.148-177(30) ASE

Recommended:
Michael J. Mazarr, "Going Just a Little Nuclear: Non-Proliferation Lessons from North Korea," International Security 20:2 (Fall 1995), p.92-122 (31) JSTOR

7 & 8 Nov. - Second Essay Issued 8 Nov
Underneath the Non-Proliferation Treaty Regime
TBA
Final Document of the 2000 Review Conference, Vol. 1, Part 1, pp.1-20 (21)
Banning N. Garrett, Bonnie S. Glaser, "Chinese Perspectives on Nuclear Arms Control, " International Security 20:3 (Winter, 1995-1996), pp. 43-78 (36) JSTOR

14 & 15 Nov. - Second Essay Due 15 Nov
US Force Posture and Nuclear Use
Federation of American Scientists, et al, Toward True Security: A US Nuclear Posture for the Next Decade, pp.1-27 (28) at http://www.fas.org/ssp/docs/010600-posture.htm
Scott Sagan, "The Commitment Trap: Why the United States Should Not Use Nuclear Threats to Deter Biological and Chemical Weapons Attacks," International Security 24:4 (Spring 2000), pp.85-115 (31) ASE
Jan Lodal, "Pledging 'No First Strike': A Step Toward Real WMD Cooperation," Arms Control Today 31:2 (March 2001) at http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2001_03/lodal.asp
Nina Tannenwald, "U.S. Arms Control Policy in a Time Warp," Ethics and International Affairs 15:1 (2001), pp51-70 (20)

21 Nov
Test Bans and Abolition
Jonathan Schell, "The Folly of Arms Control," Foreign Affairs 79:5 (Sep./Oct. 2000), pp.22-46 (25) ASE
Alan Neidle, "Nuclear Test Bans: History and Future Prospects," in Alexander L. George, et al, US-Soviet Security Cooperation: Achievements, Failures, Lessons (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1988), pp.175-214 (40)
Christopher E. Paine, "A Case Against Virtual Nuclear Testing" Scientific American 281:3 (September 1999), pp.74-79 (6) ASE

28 & 29 Nov.
Do we have to fear rogue states?
Barry R. Posen, "U.S. Security Policy in a Nuclear Armed World, or What If Iraq Had Had Nuclear Weapons?" in CC, pp.157-190 (34)
Stephen M. Walt, "Containing Rogues and Renegades," in CC, pp.191-226 (36)
David J. Karl, "Proliferation Pessimism and Emerging Nuclear Powers," International Security 21:3 (Winter 1996/1997), pp.87-119 (33) ASE

5 & 6 Dec. - Final Exam Issued 6 Dec.
National Missile Defense Debate
Ivo H. Daalder, et al, "Deploying NMD: Not Whether, But How," Survival 42:1 (Spring 2000) at http://www.brookings.edu/views/articles/daalder/2000survival.pdf
Joseph Cirincione, "Assessing The Assessment: The 1999 National Intelligence Estimate Of The Ballistic Missile Threat," The Nonproliferation Review 7:1 (Spring 2000) at http://cns.miis.edu/pubs/npr/vol07/71/circ71.htm
Igor Ivanov, "The Missile-Defense Mistake," Foreign Affairs 79:5 (Sep/Oct 2000) ASE
Brad Roberts, et al., "China: The Forgotten Nuclear Power," Foreign Affairs 79:4 (Jul/Aug 2000) ASE
FINAL ESSAY DUE: 18 DEC BY 10 AM, 338 MERGENTHALER

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