Terrorism, Weapons of Mass Destruction,
and Nonproliferation

Professor Jane Cramer
Spring 2004
Office: PLC 915
Office hours: U, 2:00-5:00
GTF: Ted Duggan
PLC 829;

Class Location: Eslinger 105
Time: UH 10:00-11:20

Course Description: This course examines terrorism, especially religiously motivated terrorism and the possibility that terrorists could possibly use weapons of mass destruction - this threat is known as the "new terrorism." This course investigates strategies of how to prevent, limit, defend and/or deter the use of weapons of mass destruction by terrorists. We examine the threats from such non-state actors such as al Qaeda, but we also examine what role/threat "rogue states" such as Iraq (formerly), Iran and North Korea and others might play with possible connections with terrorists. This course provides a solid understanding of the threat from weapons of mass destruction, examining chemical, biological and nuclear threats-what are these weapons and how useful and effective are they for war or terrorism? We examine nonproliferation efforts-what has the world done to stop the proliferation (spread) of weapons of mass destruction? What nonproliferation efforts have been made and how effective have they been? We also discuss the new threats from biological weapons and what new responses may be appropriate. We pay closest attention to the spread of nuclear weapons, debates over the effects of proliferation (peace-causing or war-causing and why?), the cases of India and Pakistan, and the threat of "loose nukes" from the former Soviet arsenal. With all of these problems-what can be done? We compare and discuss strategies to counter WMD threats by terrorists and "rogue states" (e.g. denial, diplomacy, deterrence and defense.)

Course requirements:

1.) Students must attend class and participate. Students are required to read assigned materials in advance of class. At irregular intervals (weekly, twice weekly, every other week--randomly) a 15 minute quiz will be handed out during class. Each quiz will be worth 100 points-65 points for your name (credit for attendance), a possible 13.3 more points for each of three questions. The questions will be based on the readings and/or recent past lectures. The score of your lowest quiz will be dropped. Occasionally, extra credit questions will be included. There will be NO MAKE-UP QUIZZES AND NO EXCUSED ABSENCES EXCEPT FOR DOCUMENTED MEDICAL EMERGENCIES-see me early if a make-up is necessary. Take these "quizzes" seriously--these regular quizzes are essentially in lieu of a midterm (no midterm in this class). These quizzes will be graded carefully, and will be worth 35% of your final grade.

2.) One 5-8 page ANALYTICAL RESEARCH paper will be assigned, worth 30% of your grade. You will be required to turn in an outline for this paper 2 weeks before it is due.

3.) There will be a final exam worth 35% of your grade-scheduled for 8:00am, Friday, June 11. BRING at least TWO EXAM BOOKS. It will be a 2 hour exam, taking place in the classroom. Possible exam questions will be handed out in advance.

Due dates:
1.) Frequent brief quizzes.
2.) Paper outline due: Thursday, May 13
3.) Research paper due: Thursday, May 27
4.) Final exam in classroom, Friday June 11 at 8:00 am.

Required Reading:
1.) Council on Foreign Relations, Foreign Affairs Editor's Choice: The War on Terrorism, (New York: 2002/ updated 2003) - available at UO bookstore.

2.) Scott D. Sagan and Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: A Debate Renewed, (New York: W. W. Norton, 2003) -available at UO bookstore.

3.) Alexander T. J. Lennon, Contemporary Nuclear Debates: Missile Defense, Arms Control, and the Arms Races in the Twenty-First Century (Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 2002) - available at UO bookstore.

4.) Many articles from the journal Arms Control Today, available on-line at: www.armscontrol.org/act/

5.) The New York Times. This course will often address current events. You are required to read The New York Times regularly because this is the paper in the U.S. to read if you are a student of international politics. Your research paper will be an analysis of a New York Times Op-Ed piece. Very cheap student subscriptions are available for the term at the UO bookstore. You may read it on-line, but it is easier to fully skim in paper, and maps and charts are often not available on-line (as far as I can tell). If you have never tried a real paper subscription to this pre-eminent paper-this is the time to give it a try!

6.) Other REQUIRED readings are available on-line. For example, many from Joseph Cirincione et. al. Deadly Arsenals: Tracking Weapons of Mass Destruction (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2002), are required, but these are available at the CEIP web site and we'll provide a link at the Blackboard web site-you can also buy a copy of this excellent resource book at the UO bookstore. For other readings, in some cases, you can click on the link provided in this syllabus, or copy it in your browser. If you have trouble-go to the library and find the reading using the citation provided on this syllabus or at the Blackboard web site-and ask a reference librarian if you need help. There are probably multiple ways to find the reading-find it-there will be no "excuse" for not successfully locating the readings, unless everyone could not find the reading because, for example, an error is found in the citation provided.

7.) Additional current readings will be assigned from time to time-you will be notified by e-mail and you should check the blackboard site regularly. (Make sure we have your correct e-mail address so you receive our notices of readings!)

*** We will try to place all required readings (except those available on-line) on reserve in limited quantities, but check early to see if they are available.

Course Policies:
Late or missed assignments will be severely penalized! If you miss MORE THAN ONE quiz because of a medical problem, you will need to provide a medical excuse for both (or more quizzes) and we will arrange for you to make up missed exams. However, to get the opportunity to make-up any missed quiz, you will need to demonstrate that you "used up" your "dropped" quiz grade on a verifiable medically excused situation. Also, late papers will not be accepted without a medical excuse unless prior arrangement has been made because of a known conflict. Arrangements can be made for conflicts with the paper deadlines with other deadlines-but PLAN IN ADVANCE! Advance planning is essential to being a responsible person.

DO NOT PLAGIARIZE! We will discuss this-but it is your responsibility to understand plagiarism and to make sure you do not do it!

Course Web Site: There will be a Blackboard web site for this course. You should check it regularly for materials and announcements. Please make sure we have your correct e-mail address so that you receive important announcements.

I. Terrorism

Week 1: UH, March 30 & April 1
Introduction to Terrorism, defining terrorism, and the "War on Terror;" President Bush's National Security Strategy and beginning a discussion on the War in Iraq.

Grenville Byford, "The Wrong War" in Foreign Affairs Book-The War on Terror (FA-WOT), pp. 157-165

Michael Howard, "What's in a Name?" in FA-WOT, pp. 149-156

Read also President Bush's "National Strategy to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction" available in Arms Control Today (ACT), January/February 2003 issue (under "archived issues") - look for article entitled "National Strategy to Combat Weapons of Mass Destruction."

Joe Conason, "Richard Clarke terrorizes the White House," Salon magazine interview with Clarke, March 24, 2004, available on Blackboard website.

Michael Lind, Chapter 6 "Armageddon" from Made in Texas: George W. Bush and the Southern Takeover of American Politics (New York: Basic Books, 2003)-available on e-reserve.

See Carnegie Report: "WMD in Iraq: Evidence and Implications"

Recommended:
Wade Boese "Bush Administration Releases Strategy on WMD Threats" also available in Jan/Feb 2003 issue of ACT.

Michael Hirsch, "Bush and the World" in FA-WOT pp. 174-199

Kenneth Pollack, "Next Stop Baghdad?" in FA-WOT, pp. 100-116

See also: Kenneth Pollack's New York Times Op-Ed, "A Last chance to Stop Iraq" of Feb. 21, 2003 posted on the Blackboard website.

Joseph Cirincione and Dipali Mukhopadhyay, "Why Pollack is Wrong: We Have Contained Saddam" of February 21, 2003 available on Blackboard or at www.ceip.org -this is a Carnegie Analysis under "Non-Proliferation" and in the Analysis Archive.

Fareed Zakaria, "The Arrogant Empire" (cover story), Newsweek, 3/24/2003, Vol. 141 Issue 12, p18, 16p, 6c, 2bw (available on Blackboard).

Week 2: UH, April 6 & 8:
Modern terrorism: The Age of Sacred Terror;
U.S. vs. al Qaeda: Religious War or Political Opposition to the American Imperium?
Who is al Qaeda?

Daniel Benjamin and Steven Simon, "Chapter 12: A World of Terror" from The Age of Sacred Terror, (New York: Random House, 2002) pp. 419-446 (Available on e-reserve.) [Religious movements are a new BIG problem.]

Ellen Laipson, "While America Slept" 2003, FA-WOT pp. 58-65 [Interesting review of Benjamin and Simon book.]

Michael Scott Doran, "Somebody Else's Civil War" 2002 - FA-WOT [War with al Qaeda is politically motivated]

Fouad Ajami, "The Sentry's Solitude" 2001 --FA-WOT

Walter Laqueur, "Postmodern Terrorism" 1996 --FA-WOT [This is a background on terrorism, and a brief intro to WMD for next week.]

Highly recommended for Background:

Bernard Lewis, "License to Kill" 1998 -- FA-WOT. [This has Osama Bin Laden's declaration and fatwa against the "Jews and the Crusaders" from 1998.]

Week 3: UH, April 13 & 15:
Intro to Weapons of Mass Destruction: Nuclear, Biological & Chemical weapons, proliferation trends
Introduction to Nuclear, Biological and Chemical Weapons; What kinds of threats do each of these types of weapons pose? How easy to obtain and how useful are each of these WMD for terrorism or for "rogue states"? What has been done to stop the proliferation of these weapons?

Joseph Cirincione with Jon B. Wolfsthal and Miriam Rajkumar, "Chapter 1: Global Trends," from Deadly Arsenals (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: 2002)-available through Blackboard and Carnegie web site.
For "Global Trends" go to: http://www.ceip.org/files/Publications/Tracking_TOC.asp?from=pubdate
Look at Maps on Proliferation of Chemical, Biological and Nuclear Weapons.

Arms Control Today Fact Sheets-peruse! Specific sheets -- TBA

Brief summary readings from the Federation of American Scientists -TBA
Go to: www.fas.org See especially "Secret Biodefense Activities Are Undermining the Norm Against Biological Weapons," January 2003.

On-line through the library/link on Blackboard: Richard K. Betts, "The New Threat of Mass Destruction," Foreign Affairs, vol. 77, no. 1, Jan/Feb 1998.

Begin reading Scott D. Sagan and Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons

Week 4: UH, April 20 & 22
Theoretical Debates about the Spread of Nuclear Weapons-
How much should we fear proliferation? What should we do? Pre-emption or diplomacy or relax?

Scott D. Sagan and Kenneth N. Waltz, The Spread of Nuclear Weapons

For Tuesday, read chapters 1 & 2, pp. 3-87

For Thursday, read remaining 3 chapters. India and Pakistan considered.

Week 5: UH, April 27 & 29: Saudi Arabia, friend or foe?; Iran-"rogue state" or coming in from the cold?

April 27: Saudi Arabia-friend or foe?
Guest lecture: Ted Duggan

Readings TBA!

April 29: Iran-"rogue state"?

David Albright and Corey Hinderstein, "Iran, player or rogue?" in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Sept/Oct. 2003, on-line at: http://www.thebulletin.org/issues/2003/so03/so03albright.html

Read CRS Report for Congress, "Iran's Nuclear Program: Recent Developments" March 4, 2004, also available on Blackboard.

Robert J. Einhorn, "Curbing Nuclear Proliferation in the Middle East" March 2004 ACT.

Other current readings TBA.

Week 6: UH, May 4 & 6: North Korea-what prospects? and Russian "loose nukes"

May 4: North Korea-an irrational "rogue state"?

Paul Kerr, "Six Nations Square Off Over North Korea," March 2004 ACT.

Paul Kerr, "Former Negotiator Warns Bush: Last Chance for Diplomacy with North Korea," November 2003, ACT.

See articles at Carnegie's Korean Peninsula page:
http://www.ceip.org/files/nonprolif/countries/country.asp?ID=5&country=korea

May 6: The BIG, BIG, BIG, Proliferation Problem -- Threat of "Loose Nukes" from Russia; Cooperative Threat Reduction Program
Richard Lugar, "Eliminating the Obstacles to Nunn-Lugar," March 2004, ACT.

Center for Defense Information, "Non-proliferation and the FY2005 budget request, Feb. 20, 2004"

Philipp C. Bleek, "Independent Panel Urges Increased Threat Reduction Efforts in Russia" from ACT March 2001.

For reference, peruse:
See Nuclear Status Report (Wolfstahl et al.) on the status of "loose nukes" from the former Soviet Union. Read "Chapter 3: U.S. Nonproliferation Assistance Program" pp. 47-74. (available at ceip web site at: http://www.ceip.org/files/pdf/Status.pdf and on blackboard)

For reference, also see Defense Threat Reduction Agency

Week 7: UH, May 11 & 13
May 13 -Paper Outline Due!!!
Defending against Weapons of Mass Destruction?
History of Missile Defenses - a centerpiece of current strategy

Film and discussion: Frontline: Missile Wars (and possibly clips from Visions of Star Wars-excellent older film with great historical footage.)

Begin reading from book Contemporary Nuclear Debates:

Alexander T.J. Lennon, "Introduction: Modernizing Nuclear Debates"
Michael Nacht, "The Politics: How Did We Get Here?"
Stephen J. Hadley, "A Call to Deploy"
Richard L. Garwin, "A Defense That Will Not Defend"

Week 8: UH, May 18 & 20
Contemporary nuclear debates-National Missile Defense and understanding the NEW strategy-Moving away from MAD, embracing pre-emption, new nuclear weapons
(Comparing strategic options and trade-offs)

Read more from book Contemporary Nuclear Debates:

James A. Lindsay and Michael E. O'Hanlon, "Missile Defense After the ABM Treaty"

Part III: Do Arms Races Matter Anymore?
Leon Fuerth, "Return of the Nuclear Debate"
Keith B. Payne, "Action-Reaction Metaphysics and Negligence"
Bruno Tertrais, "Do Arms Races Matter?"
Leon Sloss, "The New Arms Race"

"The Bush Administrations Views on the Future of Nuclear Weapons: An Interview with NNSA Administrator Linton Brooks" Jan/Feb 2004 ACT.

Recommended: Other articles from part 1-"Toward Missile Defenses from the Sea" and "Would Space-Based Defenses Improve Security"

READ AHEAD!

Week 9: UH, May 25 & 27 - Paper Due May 27!!!
Global Perceptions of Missile Defenses and the Death of Arms Control?

Part II & IV -Global Perceptions and is Arms Control dead?

Michael McDevitt "Beijing's Bind"
Alexander A. Pikayev, "Moscow's Matrix"
(Skim other countries' perceptions.)

Part IV-Is Arms Control Dead? READ ALL.

Week 10: UH, June 1 & 3

June 1: The War on Terror? Future of Iraq? The future of arms control, pre-emption, and more… Libya and Pakistan considered.

Several current readings--TBA

June 3: Review for final and handout review questions to prepare for final.

Final: Friday, June 11, 8:00 am- bring at least two exam books to the classroom.