Richwine now in graduate school at Harvard's
Kennedy School of Government

In the 2000 election, Jason Richwine (MATH '04) understood more about the mathematics behind determining voting power than most campaign advisors.

Richwine, winner of an American University 2003 CAS Research Award, used math to determine the relative power of individual states in presidential elections. He collected election data from 1980 to 2000 to learn if a list of powerful states from the past is still valid today. Whereas previous studies assumed that state power lies solely in the number of a state's electoral votes (ranking California and Texas as the

most powerful states), Richwine showed that "swing states," states that often flip-flop between Democratic and Republican dominance, hold voting power disproportionate to their size. He found, for example, that Pennsylvania is more powerful than Texas in determining a presidential victory. He also detected an increase in the spread of power between the top and bottom of the state list. Richwine's study reveals a top-heavy or what he calls an "oligarchic" structure with a few states at the top holding disparate power in elections.

Upon first inspection, this may seem like good news to candidates, who should have fewer states to cover during their campaigns. However, Richwine emphasizes one caveat: his model is based on the assumption that each candidate behaves (i.e., campaigns) in the same manner as candidates have in the past.

Richwine double majored in mathematics and political science, earning a BS from CAS and a BA from the School of Public Affairs. His is the first study of its kind since 1986, and he plans to publish his results in an academic journal. Richwine is now in graduate school at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government.