Jason Richwine

From Landsdale, PA (NW suburb of Philly)
Majors: Math and Political science, '04

In the midst of an election year, Jason Richwine understands more about the power of voting than most campaign advisors. Richwine, winner of an American University 2003 CAS Research Award, used math to determine the relative power of individual states in presidential elections. He collected election data from 1980-2000 to learn if a list of powerful states from the past is still valid today.

Whereas previous studies assumed that state power lies solely in the number of a state's electoral votes (ranking California and Texas as the most powerful states), Richwine showed that "swing states", states that often flip-flop between Democratic and Republican dominance, hold voting power disproportionate to their size. Richwine found, for example, that Pennsylvania is more powerful than Texas in determining a presidential victory. He also detected an increase in the spread of power between the top and bottom of the state list. The result of Richwine's study reveals a top-heavy or what he calls an "oligarchical structure" with a few states at the top holding the vast majority of power in elections.

Upon first inspection, this may seem like good news to candidates who should have fewer states to cover during their campaigns. However, Richwine emphasizes one caveat: his model is based on the assumption that each candidate behaves (i.e., campaigns) in the same manner as candidates have in the past.

In addition to receiving a 2003 CAS Research Award, he won an Honors Program Capstone Award in Political Science and Mathematics, as well as the prestigious Student Award for Outstanding Scholarship at the Undergraduate Level in 2004. Richwine is currently engaged in graduate study in political science at Harvard's John F. Kennedy School of Government.